French voters will head to the polls this Sunday after Emmanuel Macron called for early parliamentary elections. This election is considered one of the most important in recent decades, with significant consequences for both France and Europe. Over the next two weeks, France could experience a government aligned with either the far left or far right, or even face a political deadlock if neither bloc achieves a majority, which would paralyze Paris and exacerbate both internal and external issues.
Shortly after the defeat of his party, La République En Marche, in the European Parliament elections, President Emmanuel Macron called for early elections, becoming the first president to do so since 1997. La République En Marche finished in a distant second place, garnering less than half the votes of the Rassemblement National (RN), a far-right party led by Marine Le Pen, and only marginally ahead of the leftist coalition that came in third.
Macron does not hesitate to make bold decisions. When he first ran for office, he did so with a party he had founded just a year earlier, ultimately becoming president. However, this is a monumental gamble, even by his standards.
“If his strategy is successful, he will be seen as a brilliant strategist,” said Kevin Arceneaux, a political scientist at Sciences Po University. “Otherwise, he could be remembered as someone who essentially destabilized the traditional French party system and threw a grenade at the institutions of the Fifth Republic.”
Macron’s decision to call for early elections surprised even his closest allies. The next elections in France were scheduled for 2027, and it is rare for politicians to call elections when their party is struggling in the polls and there is no immediate need for such action.
Analysts have speculated about the possible reasons for this decision. Although Macron was re-elected for a second term in 2022, his party failed to secure an absolute majority in parliament. To pass controversial bills like his pension reform, Macron frequently had to bypass parliament and rely on presidential decrees, which generated discontent among opposition parties and the public.
One theory suggests that Macron may have anticipated that France would soon face new elections anyway. Each time Macron approves a law by presidential decree, parliament has the option to hold a vote of no confidence against his government. With further bills planned for the end of the year, Macron’s government might not withstand a new vote of no confidence. He may have decided it was better to take the initiative now than to wait to be forced into it.
Another theory posits that Macron hopes to neutralize extremist parties by exposing them to the responsibilities of government. As Marine Le Pen increasingly appears as a potential successor for the presidency in 2027—a year when Macron cannot run for a third term—these elections could lead to her party having to take on responsibility prematurely. Outside of power, both the far left and far right have often criticized his policies and made bold promises. However, once in power, they could face practical limitations and potentially fail to deliver on their promises or expose their shortcomings. By ceding some power now, Macron could create a better opportunity for his party to remain at the forefront in 2027.
And how do the French elections work?
The election to the National Assembly of France takes place in two rounds. The National Assembly has 577 seats, corresponding to each of its constituencies. To achieve an absolute majority, a party needs 289 seats. Currently, Macron’s alliance holds only 250 seats and needs the support of other parties to pass laws.
In the first round, a candidate can win the seat if they receive a majority of the votes with a minimum turnout of 25%. In most cases, however, the election goes to a second round, which takes place the following Sunday. Only candidates who receive more than 12.5% of the votes from registered voters can compete in the second round. This typically leads to a contest between two candidates but can sometimes involve three or four candidates. At this stage, some candidates may withdraw to improve the chances of stronger allies.
The National Assembly is responsible for passing domestic laws covering issues such as pensions, taxes, immigration, and education. The French president, on the other hand, determines the country’s foreign, European, and defense policies.
When the president and the majority in parliament belong to the same party, the government usually operates harmoniously. If this is not the case, the government can face significant difficulties. If Macron’s party continues to lose in the polls and he has three years left in his presidential term, he could be forced to appoint a prime minister from an opposition party—a situation known as “cohabitation.” Despite everything, Macron has promised to fulfill the rest of his term.
Ministers of the government are appointed by the president in consultation with the prime minister. Although Macron theoretically has the freedom to appoint anyone, he must practically choose ministers who represent the will of the majority in the National Assembly.
In January, Gabriel Attal was appointed the youngest prime minister in French history at the age of 34. Just seven months later, this record could be surpassed by Jordan Bardella, the chairman of the Rassemblement National (RN), who is 28 years old.
Bardella was chosen by Marine Le Pen in 2022 to lead the RN, ending a long era of leadership by the Le Pen family and attempting to improve the party’s image, which had been associated with anti-Semitism and a radical stance. Bardella grew up as an only child in social housing in Seine-Saint-Denis, a working-class suburb of Paris. He joined the RN at 16 and briefly attended the prestigious Sorbonne, but dropped out to focus on rising within the party. If appointed, he would become Europe’s youngest prime minister in over two centuries.
Bardella’s campaign gained momentum after Eric Ciotti, the head of the main conservative party Les Républicains, announced a coalition with the Rassemblement National (RN). This move caused outrage within his party, which was surprised and attempted to unseat him, but so far without success. Ciotti’s support could mark the end of the “cordon sanitaire” in France—the principle by which major parties avoid collaborating with extremists.
On the left, four days after Macron announced the elections, a group of parties united to form the Nouvelle Union Populaire. This coalition aims to revive the original Popular Front that prevented fascists from taking power in 1936. The alliance includes three-time presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, head of the party La France Insoumise; the Socialists; the Communists; the Greens; and Place Publique, led by popular Member of the European Parliament Raphaël Glucksmann.
It remains unclear whom the alliance will nominate as prime minister or how long the coalition will last. However, it could pose a significant challenge to Macron’s La République En Marche. By uniting several leftist candidates into a single application in many constituencies, the left’s vote will be less fragmented, making it easier for a candidate to advance to the second round.
Since Macron announced the elections, financial markets have expressed concern, initially due to the possibility of an extremist government and later because of the economic policies proposed by the left and right. Recently, the risk premium that investors demand for holding French government bonds has reached its highest level since 2022.
France has one of the highest deficits in the Eurozone and now faces the threat of being affected by the new budget rules of the European Commission, which were suspended to support countries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis. The French government could face strict spending controls from Brussels, despite the generous promises made by the RN and the Nouvelle Union Populaire.
“The debate on the left and right is not about budget consolidation but about the extent of fiscal expansion to be implemented,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. “No one is talking about austerity.”
Although Jordan Bardella has softened some of the Rassemblement National (RN) spending plans, Mujtaba Rahman warned of the possibility of a “major conflict” between Brussels and a new French government.
