Global wheat prices reached a 10-month high in May due to adverse weather conditions that reduced the yields of maturing crops in Russia, the world’s largest exporter.
The forecast of drought in the agricultural heart of the Black Sea region is likely to significantly impact sunflower and corn production, while heavy rainfall in the U.S., following near-record temperatures, threatens crops and strains global supplies, leading to price increases.
“The weather forecast for the Black Sea region is a critical warning,” emphasized Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at U.S.-based Maxar.
With the prospect of drought and below-average rainfall in July and August, there is a strong likelihood of damage to the region’s main crops, corn, and sunflowers.

Record temperatures in key global agricultural areas have delayed planting and hindered crop development, as the effects of climate change become increasingly evident. Major farming regions in Russia, China, India, and the U.S. are suffering from extreme heat and below-average rainfall.
The Russian Hydrometeorological Center forecasts that the hot conditions in the south of the country, combined with soil dryness, will negatively impact harvests, with lower expected rainfall and heat in the Ural, West Siberia, and Transbaikalia regions.
In Ukraine, dry and hot conditions have been reported in both the southern and eastern areas, with rainfall between May 1 and June 10 reaching only 20-50% of the normal average, according to state meteorologists. This drought is hindering the development of winter and spring crops, particularly in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.
Meteorologists highlighted that May was one of the driest months in Ukraine in the past 30 years. In the north, particularly in Zhytomyr, hailstorms have damaged spring crops like corn, soybeans, and sunflowers.
These extreme weather events heighten concerns over agricultural production in the region, affecting both the quality and quantity of crops, which could have significant repercussions on global food markets.
In the U.S., one of the world’s leading food exporters, intense heat dominates parts of the East Coast, while excessive rainfall in the Midwest’s key farming region and forecasts of more moisture raise the risk of flooding.
“In the Midwest, we’re observing a shift from heat to excessive rainfall, which could lead to flooding in corn and soybean-growing areas, particularly in the Upper Midwest,” said Hyde.
In Asia, extensive rainfall is expected, which could alleviate severe drought in parts of China, one of the largest global soybean importers.
These varying climatic conditions shape the global agricultural landscape, with potentially significant impacts on food markets and global prices for agricultural commodities.
While monsoon rains in India, which are about 20% below average, are expected to increase, this could support agriculture in the world’s largest rice exporter and a major importer of cooking oils. “Northern and eastern China, key regions for corn and soybean cultivation, are suffering from alarming drought,” warned Hyde.
“However, the weather is expected to normalize or even exceed normal rainfall levels from July to September, which will benefit crops.”
China’s Meteorological Center told Reuters that parts of the northern, northeastern, and western provinces could expect higher rainfall from July to September, promoting plant growth.
“However, the rainfall in some areas may be intense, requiring monitoring for rapid shifts between drought and flooding,” he added, warning that increased moisture also raises the risk of crop diseases and pests.
In India, monsoon rains have finally resumed after more than a week-long break, a meteorological official reported.
“It has gained the necessary momentum to move towards the northern plains. In the coming weeks, we expect several periods of heavy rainfall to make up for the previous deficit. July promises to be a much more promising month.”
This monsoon recovery is critical for Indian agriculture, which heavily relies on these seasonal rains to irrigate its fields. India, as the world’s largest rice exporter and a key importer of cooking oils, will see significant impacts on its agricultural output if these forecasts hold.
In Australia, weather conditions are expected to be normal, with some regions receiving above-average rainfall. This is particularly beneficial for the country’s wheat harvest, which has already been challenged by climate change. An improvement in weather conditions could boost production, providing much-needed relief for Australian farmers.
For Argentina and Brazil, forecasts point to largely stable weather in the coming months. This stability is crucial for agricultural production in both countries, which are major exporters of soybeans and corn. In Brazil, normal weather expectations are especially important as the country prepares for its next soybean harvest, one of its key export crops.
These varying weather conditions across the globe shape the overall agricultural outlook. In Russia and Ukraine, drought and extreme temperatures pose a significant threat to the production of sunflowers, corn, and wheat. In the U.S., excessive rainfall in the Midwest raises concerns about potential flooding, which could damage corn and soybean crops.
On the other hand, extensive rainfall in China is expected from July to September, which will help ease the severe drought in important corn and soybean-growing regions in the north and east. However, increased moisture also brings concerns, such as the heightened risk of crop diseases and pests.
The recovery of monsoon rains in India, the promising conditions in Australia, and the anticipated stability in South America contrast with the challenges faced in Eastern Europe and North America. These climate fluctuations have profound effects not only on farmers but also on global commodity markets and food security worldwide.
Given the ongoing and unpredictable extreme weather events in the global climate, the need for adaptation and resilience strategies in agriculture has never been more urgent. The ability of countries to meet these challenges will determine the success of their harvests and the stability of food prices in the near future.