A recent survey conducted by the Venezuelan institute Meganalisis suggests that Venezuela may be on the verge of a new migration crisis. Between August 8 and 11, more than a thousand people were interviewed in Caracas and across the country’s 23 states, revealing that 43.2% of Venezuelans are considering leaving the country. This desire arises amid suspicions of electoral fraud related to the announcement by the National Electoral Council (CNE) on July 28, which declared Nicolás Maduro as the winner of the presidential elections.
What intensifies the uncertainty is the lack of transparency from the CNE, which has yet to release detailed results by voting center and polling station, generating a wave of distrust and dissatisfaction among citizens. This situation has made many Venezuelans feel that their democratic rights have been violated, leading to an increased desire to seek new opportunities abroad.
Venezuela’s recent history is already marked by mass migration due to political and economic instability. Now, with the threat of another large-scale exodus, the country faces even greater challenges, both internally and in its relationship with neighboring countries, which may see a new influx of refugees. The prospect of yet another wave of emigration highlights the urgent need to resolve political tensions and restore confidence in the country’s governance and electoral processes.
The survey results, which Meganalisis claims have a confidence margin of 95%, have raised alarms among leaders in towns and cities along the 2,341-kilometer border shared between Colombia and Venezuela. These areas have already been deeply affected by previous migratory flows and are now preparing for a potential new exodus. Data from Colombian immigration authorities indicates that, as of February this year, there were just over 2.8 million Venezuelans living in Colombia, underscoring the magnitude of the challenge that Colombia may face once again.
Jorge Acevedo, mayor of Cúcuta, a border city located in northeastern Colombia, expressed his concerns in a press conference. “There could be a migratory mobilization. Everything depends on how the situation in the neighboring country develops. Cúcuta has experienced previous situations in accommodating migrants, and we are preparing for this possible wave of Venezuelans. We hope that it does not exceed our capacities and is not larger than what happened in 2015 and the preceding years,” Acevedo said, reflecting the fear that a new migration crisis could overwhelm already limited support infrastructures.
Meanwhile, reports from Venezuelans who have already decided to leave the country indicate a climate of fear and persecution. Many fear for their safety and the possibility of imprisonment. Durbi Borges, for example, recounted his escape to Colombia after serving as a polling station witness during the elections. “I was a witness at the polling station and attest that Maduro lost throughout the country. I had to leave Venezuela because I was persecuted, as Sebin was looking for us to imprison us. From here, I continue the fight for a free Venezuela,” said Borges, highlighting the continued resistance of many Venezuelans even after being forced to flee.
The Colombian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that, so far, the situation at the border with Venezuela is under control and does not show immediate signs of a new migratory wave. However, the possibility that the number of migrants could increase in the near future is not ruled out.
During a recent visit to the department of La Guajira, in northern Colombia, Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo commented that, for now, the government does not plan to declare a border emergency to deal with a potential new wave of migration. “These are expectations that have yet to materialize,” Murillo said when asked by the press about fears of an increase in migratory flow.
For President Gustavo Petro’s government, the migration issue is extremely sensitive, especially considering the potential impact that mass migration from Venezuela could have on the economy, public order, and the humanitarian situation of migrants in Colombia. Petro’s administration is aware that a migration crisis may require a rapid and effective response to minimize negative effects on the country.
In a more conciliatory stance, President Gustavo Petro emphasized the importance of an internal political agreement in Venezuela as the best solution to achieve peace and stability. “An internal political agreement in Venezuela is the best path to peace. It depends solely on the Venezuelans. On our part, border populations can rest assured. The borders will remain open to improve the shared prosperity of our people,” Petro said on his account on X, formerly known as Twitter, on August 15.
For Venezuelans, Colombia represents more than just a destination country; it is also a crucial transit point for those seeking to reach other countries in the continent, especially the United States. Many Venezuelans cross the dangerous Darién route, a region known for its extreme conditions and high risks, in an attempt to find a better life.
Rafael Páez, a Venezuelan living in Colombia and a member of the NGO Vente Venezuela, highlighted the gravity of this situation in an interview. “Many risk their lives in search of a better future for themselves and their families. The records of those who have died fall short of the magnitude of this tragedy. And if things do not improve in Venezuela, many more will leave in desperation due to the situation,” Páez said. His words reflect the despair and courage of many Venezuelans who, faced with a lack of prospects and the economic and political difficulties in their home country, are willing to face unimaginable dangers to start anew in foreign lands.
The journey through the Darién route exposes migrants to dangers such as violence, exploitation, and harsh natural conditions, representing a humanitarian crisis that transcends borders. This path has become a symbol of Venezuelans’ desperate search for safety and opportunities, even when the price to pay is facing one of the most dangerous stretches in Latin America.
The situation underscores the urgency of a coordinated response from both Venezuela and the international community to improve internal conditions in the country and provide adequate support to migrants. Without significant improvements in Venezuela, the migratory flow, as well as the risks faced by those leaving the country, is likely to increase, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region.
In 2023, approximately 520,000 people of various nationalities risked crossing the so-called Darién Gap, according to data from the Colombian Ombudsman’s Office. Among these migrants, many are Venezuelans, including entire families, some carrying children in their arms, who face the dense and dangerous jungle in search of a more promising future. These families often cross the Darién on their way to Panama, a country that, since the inauguration of its new president José Raul Mulino, has intensified immigration controls to manage the growing flow of migrants.
Analyst Oscar Montes, a columnist for the newspaper El Heraldo, expressed his concern about Colombia’s ability to handle a possible new migration wave. “What we need to verify is whether Colombia is truly prepared to receive a new wave of migrants. The available resources are scarce, and the international community is not allocating enough for a high-impact humanitarian situation in the border area. We have many unresolved social problems, and the government says there is no money, with even talk of a new tax reform. If there is no solution in Venezuela, Colombia will undoubtedly be the most affected country,” Montes said, highlighting the complexity of the situation.
The prospect of a new mass exodus is raising alarms not only in Colombia but throughout the region. Experts point out that if conditions in Venezuela do not improve significantly, it is only a matter of time before a new flow of migrants begins to further strain Colombia’s borders. This scenario underscores the urgent need for coordinated responses at both regional and international levels to avoid an even greater humanitarian crisis.
With limited resources and insufficient international support, Colombia faces a monumental challenge. The possible new tax reform mentioned by the Colombian government only emphasizes the gravity of the situation, suggesting that additional measures may be necessary to sustain the response to the growing number of migrants. Unless a lasting solution is found to the crisis in Venezuela, Colombia and other countries in the region may face a significant increase in economic, social, and humanitarian challenges.
